World Economy/United Arab Emirates

🇦🇪

United Arab Emirates

ARE

Middle East • Sovereign Currency: AED

Analyze United Arab Emirates with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$0.53T

2024

Annual GDP Growth

+3.9%

YoY 2024

Inflation (CPI)

2.1%

2024 YoY

Policy Rate

4.65%

Base Rate on ODF

10Y Sovereign Yield

4.55%

10Y UAE Treasury Bond

Unemployment Rate

2.8%

2024

Debt-to-GDP

30.1%

2024

Trade Balance

+$8.5B

2024

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇦🇪SAUDI CENTRAL BANK (SAMA) POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: Repo Rate • Sovereign: United Arab Emirates (ARE)

STANCE: hawkish

Next Meeting: 2026-12-18

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

5.50%Unchanged (0 bps)

Repo Rate

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

+3.40%

Restrictive Drag

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (O/N)

N/A

Statutory money market fixing

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

-0.95%

Inverted Term Structure

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)2024 YoY

Anchored within standard statutory price stability corridor

FCSC UAERef

2.10%

LOOSER

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)2024 YoY

Headline inflation exceeds 2% anchor by 0.10 percentage points

FCSC UAERef

+0.10%

LOOSER

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth Rate2024

Robust real economic expansion supporting labor demand

CBUAERef

3.90%

MILD LOOSE

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)2024

Tight labor market conditions with minimal civilian slack

MOHRERef

2.80%

LOOSER

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

Repo RateBase Rate on ODF

Official statutory policy target rate set by Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)

Central Bank of the UAERef

4.65%

MILD LOOSE

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Positive real return regime delivering restrictive monetary drag

Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) vs FCSC UAE

+3.40%

MILD LOOSE

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark Yield10Y UAE Treasury Bond

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

Ministry of FinanceRef

4.55%

IN LINE

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Inverted yield curve by 0.95% signaling restrictive monetary drag

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

-0.95%

TIGHTER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade Balance2024

Trade balance surplus reinforcing sovereign foreign exchange buffer

CBUAERef

+$8.5B

MILD LOOSE

General Government Debt / GDP2024

Fiscal debt load within statutory prudential headroom boundary

Ministry of FinanceRef

30.10%

LOOSER

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (REPO RATE)

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

5.50%

Policy Assessment Summary: Repurchase agreement rate pegged to Federal Funds.