World Economy/Brazil

🇧🇷

Brazil

BRA

Americas • Sovereign Currency: BRL

Analyze Brazil with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$2.33T

2024 Projection

Annual GDP Growth

+3.3%

YoY Q2 2024 YoY

Inflation (CPI)

4.8%

Oct 2024 IPCA YoY

Policy Rate

11.25%

Selic Target Rate

10Y Sovereign Yield

12.85%

Brazil 10Y Generic

Unemployment Rate

6.4%

Sep 2024 (PNAD Contínua)

Debt-to-GDP

86.7%

2024 Gross General Debt

Trade Balance

+$4.3B

Oct 2024 Surplus

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇧🇷BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: Selic Target Rate • Sovereign: Brazil (BRA)

STANCE: hawkish

Next Meeting: 2026-12-11

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

13.25%Unchanged (0 bps)

Selic Target Rate

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

+8.49%

Restrictive Drag

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (O/N)

N/A

Statutory money market fixing

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

-0.40%

Inverted Term Structure

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)Oct 2024 IPCA YoY

Elevated above price stability band (+2.8% vs target)

IBGE BrazilRef

4.76%

MILD TIGHT

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)Oct 2024 IPCA YoY

Headline inflation exceeds 2% anchor by 2.76 percentage points

IBGE BrazilRef

+2.76%

MILD TIGHT

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth RateQ2 2024 YoY

Robust real economic expansion supporting labor demand

IBGE BrazilRef

3.30%

MILD LOOSE

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)Sep 2024 (PNAD Contínua)

Elevated civilian labor slack exerting downward wage pressure

IBGE BrazilRef

6.40%

IN LINE

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

Selic Target RateSelic Target Rate

Official statutory policy target rate set by Banco Central do Brasil

Banco Central do Brasil (BCB / Copom)Ref

11.25%

MILD TIGHT

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Positive real return regime delivering restrictive monetary drag

Banco Central do Brasil vs IBGE Brazil

+8.49%

MILD LOOSE

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark YieldBrazil 10Y Generic

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

Tesouro Nacional TransparenteRef

12.85%

MILD TIGHT

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Inverted yield curve by 0.40% signaling restrictive monetary drag

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

-0.40%

TIGHTER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade BalanceOct 2024 Surplus

Trade balance surplus reinforcing sovereign foreign exchange buffer

MDIC / Comex StatRef

+$4.3B

MILD LOOSE

General Government Debt / GDP2024 Gross General Debt

Moderate sovereign debt overhang requiring disciplined budget management

IMF Fiscal Monitor / BCBRef

86.70%

MILD TIGHT

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (SELIC TARGET RATE)

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

13.25%

Policy Assessment Summary: Target rate for overnight interbank transactions.

Key Domestic Equities & Capital Markets

Major corporate champions tracked in WOWS with sovereign economic exposure

Index: Ibovespa (IBOV)

PBR• Oil & Gas

Petrobras

VALE• Iron Ore & Mining