World Economy/China

🇨🇳

China

CHN

Asia-Pacific • Sovereign Currency: CNY

Analyze China with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$18.53T

2024 Est.

Annual GDP Growth

+4.8%

YoY Q3 2024 YoY

Inflation (CPI)

0.3%

Oct 2024 YoY

Policy Rate

3.10%

1-Year Loan Prime Rate

10Y Sovereign Yield

2.11%

10-Year Government Bond

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

Urban Surveyed Oct 2024

Debt-to-GDP

88.6%

2024 Projected

Trade Balance

+$95.7B

Oct 2024 Trade Surplus

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇨🇳PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) • Sovereign: China (CHN)

STANCE: neutral

Next Meeting: 2026-10-20

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

3.10%Unchanged (0 bps)

1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR)

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

+2.80%

Restrictive Drag

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (DR007)

3.05%-5 bps

7-Day Depository Institution Repo Rate

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

-0.99%

Inverted Term Structure

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)Oct 2024 YoY

Subdued inflation pressure tracking below target baseline

National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)Ref

0.30%

TIGHTER

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)Oct 2024 YoY

Inflation below 2% target anchor by 1.70 percentage points

National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)Ref

-1.70%

MILD TIGHT

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth RateQ3 2024 YoY

Robust real economic expansion supporting labor demand

National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)Ref

4.80%

LOOSER

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)Urban Surveyed Oct 2024

Balanced labor market matching full employment capacity

National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)Ref

5.10%

MILD LOOSE

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR)1-Year Loan Prime Rate

Official statutory policy target rate set by People's Bank of China

People's Bank of China (PBoC)Ref

3.10%

MILD LOOSE

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Positive real return regime delivering restrictive monetary drag

People's Bank of China vs National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)

+2.80%

MILD LOOSE

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark Yield10-Year Government Bond

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

China Central Depository & Clearing (CCDC)Ref

2.11%

LOOSER

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Inverted yield curve by 0.99% signaling restrictive monetary drag

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

-0.99%

TIGHTER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade BalanceOct 2024 Trade Surplus

Trade balance surplus reinforcing sovereign foreign exchange buffer

General Administration of Customs (GAC)Ref

+$95.7B

LOOSER

General Government Debt / GDP2024 Projected

Moderate sovereign debt overhang requiring disciplined budget management

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)Ref

88.60%

MILD TIGHT

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (1-YEAR LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR))

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

3.10%

Policy Assessment Summary: PBoC guided 1-year and 5-year benchmark lending rate.

Key Domestic Equities & Capital Markets

Major corporate champions tracked in WOWS with sovereign economic exposure

Index: Hang Seng / CSI 300 (HSI)

BABA• E-Commerce

Alibaba Group

TCEHY• Gaming & Social

NIO• Electric Vehicles

NIO Inc