World Economy/Poland

🇵🇱

Poland

POL

Europe • Sovereign Currency: PLN

Analyze Poland with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$0.88T

2024

Annual GDP Growth

+2.7%

YoY Q3 2024

Inflation (CPI)

5.0%

Oct 2024 YoY

Policy Rate

5.75%

NBP Reference Rate

10Y Sovereign Yield

5.72%

10Y Poland Bond

Unemployment Rate

5.0%

Oct 2024

Debt-to-GDP

51.4%

2024

Trade Balance

+$0.8B

Sep 2024

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇵🇱EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: Deposit Facility Rate • Sovereign: Poland (POL)

STANCE: neutral

Next Meeting: 2026-10-29

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

3.25%Unchanged (0 bps)

Deposit Facility Rate

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

-1.75%

Accommodative Stimulus

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (€STR)

3.20%-5 bps

Euro Short-Term Rate

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

+2.47%

Normal Upward Slope

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)Oct 2024 YoY

Elevated above price stability band (+3.0% vs target)

GUS PolandRef

5.00%

MILD TIGHT

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)Oct 2024 YoY

Headline inflation exceeds 2% anchor by 3.00 percentage points

GUS PolandRef

+3.00%

MILD TIGHT

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth RateQ3 2024

Moderate real growth pace matching potential output

GUS PolandRef

2.70%

MILD LOOSE

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)Oct 2024

Balanced labor market matching full employment capacity

GUSRef

5.00%

MILD LOOSE

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

Deposit Facility RateNBP Reference Rate

Official statutory policy target rate set by European Central Bank

Narodowy Bank PolskiRef

5.75%

LOOSER

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Negative real rate stance subsidizing borrowing costs

European Central Bank vs GUS Poland

-1.75%

TIGHTER

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark Yield10Y Poland Bond

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

Ministry of FinanceRef

5.72%

IN LINE

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Upward-sloping normal term structure (+2.47%)

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

+2.47%

LOOSER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade BalanceSep 2024

Trade balance surplus reinforcing sovereign foreign exchange buffer

GUSRef

+$0.8B

MILD LOOSE

General Government Debt / GDP2024

Fiscal debt load within statutory prudential headroom boundary

Ministry of FinanceRef

51.40%

MILD LOOSE

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE)

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

3.25%

Policy Assessment Summary: Key ECB interest rate on the deposit facility.