World Economy/Russia

🇷🇺

Russia

RUS

Europe • Sovereign Currency: RUB

Analyze Russia with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$2.05T

2024

Annual GDP Growth

+3.6%

YoY Q3 2024

Inflation (CPI)

8.5%

Oct 2024 YoY

Policy Rate

21.00%

Bank of Russia Key Rate

10Y Sovereign Yield

15.90%

10Y OFZ Bond

Unemployment Rate

2.4%

Sep 2024

Debt-to-GDP

18.5%

2024

Trade Balance

+$9.8B

Sep 2024

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇷🇺BANK OF RUSSIA POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: Key Rate • Sovereign: Russia (RUS)

STANCE: hawkish

Next Meeting: 2026-12-20

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

21.00%Unchanged (0 bps)

Key Rate

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

+12.50%

Restrictive Drag

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (O/N)

N/A

Statutory money market fixing

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

-5.10%

Inverted Term Structure

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)Oct 2024 YoY

Elevated above price stability band (+6.5% vs target)

RosstatRef

8.50%

TIGHTER

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)Oct 2024 YoY

Headline inflation exceeds 2% anchor by 6.50 percentage points

RosstatRef

+6.50%

TIGHTER

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth RateQ3 2024

Robust real economic expansion supporting labor demand

RosstatRef

3.60%

MILD LOOSE

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)Sep 2024

Tight labor market conditions with minimal civilian slack

RosstatRef

2.40%

LOOSER

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

Key RateBank of Russia Key Rate

Official statutory policy target rate set by Bank of Russia

Bank of RussiaRef

21.00%

TIGHTER

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Positive real return regime delivering restrictive monetary drag

Bank of Russia vs Rosstat

+12.50%

MILD LOOSE

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark Yield10Y OFZ Bond

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

Moscow ExchangeRef

15.90%

MILD TIGHT

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Inverted yield curve by 5.10% signaling restrictive monetary drag

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

-5.10%

TIGHTER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade BalanceSep 2024

Trade balance surplus reinforcing sovereign foreign exchange buffer

Bank of RussiaRef

+$9.8B

MILD LOOSE

General Government Debt / GDP2024

Fiscal debt load within statutory prudential headroom boundary

Ministry of FinanceRef

18.50%

LOOSER

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (KEY RATE)

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

21.00%

Policy Assessment Summary: Bank of Russia key interest rate.