World Economy/Turkey

🇹🇷

Turkey

TUR

Europe • Sovereign Currency: TRY

Analyze Turkey with Schema AI

Nominal GDP

$1.15T

2024

Annual GDP Growth

+2.5%

YoY Q2 2024

Inflation (CPI)

48.6%

Oct 2024 YoY

Policy Rate

50.00%

One-Week Repo

10Y Sovereign Yield

28.50%

10Y Benchmark Bond

Unemployment Rate

8.6%

Sep 2024

Debt-to-GDP

29.5%

2024

Trade Balance

$-5.1B

Oct 2024

BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

🇹🇷CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY POLICY DASHBOARD

Target Instrument: One-Week Repo Rate • Sovereign: Turkey (TUR)

STANCE: hawkish

Next Meeting: 2026-11-21

LOOSER CONDITIONSIN LINE WITH TARGETTIGHTER CONDITIONS

STATUTORY BENCHMARK

50.00%Unchanged (0 bps)

One-Week Repo Rate

REAL CARRY SPREAD (r - π)

+1.42%

Neutral Equilibrium

OVERNIGHT BENCHMARK (O/N)

N/A

Statutory money market fixing

YIELD CURVE SLOPE (10Y - r)

-21.50%

Inverted Term Structure

WAGES & PRICES2 METRICS

Headline CPI Inflation (YoY)Oct 2024 YoY

Elevated above price stability band (+46.6% vs target)

TurkStatRef

48.58%

TIGHTER

Distance to Inflation Target (2.0%)Oct 2024 YoY

Headline inflation exceeds 2% anchor by 46.58 percentage points

TurkStatRef

+46.58%

TIGHTER

SUPPLY & DEMAND2 METRICS

Annual Real GDP Growth RateQ2 2024

Moderate real growth pace matching potential output

TurkStatRef

2.50%

MILD LOOSE

Unemployment Rate (Labor Slack)Sep 2024

Elevated civilian labor slack exerting downward wage pressure

TurkStatRef

8.60%

MILD TIGHT

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS4 METRICS

One-Week Repo RateOne-Week Repo

Official statutory policy target rate set by Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

CBRTRef

50.00%

TIGHTER

Real Carry Rate (Policy - CPI)Calculated

Positive real return regime delivering restrictive monetary drag

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey vs TurkStat

+1.42%

LOOSER

10-Year Sovereign Benchmark Yield10Y Benchmark Bond

Long-term sovereign borrowing benchmark discounting term premium & inflation risk

Borsa IstanbulRef

28.50%

MILD TIGHT

Yield Curve Slope (10Y - Policy Rate)Calculated

Inverted yield curve by 21.50% signaling restrictive monetary drag

Sovereign Debt Desk vs Central Bank Target

-21.50%

TIGHTER

EXTERNAL & FISCAL2 METRICS

Current Account / Trade BalanceOct 2024

Trade deficit requiring external capital inflows or debt financing

TurkStatRef

$-5.1B

IN LINE

General Government Debt / GDP2024

Fiscal debt load within statutory prudential headroom boundary

Ministry of Treasury and FinanceRef

29.50%

LOOSER

HISTORICAL RATE DECISION TRAJECTORY (ONE-WEEK REPO RATE)

Verified Chronological Decisions

2026-10-09

50.00%

Policy Assessment Summary: One-week repo auction interest rate.